Publication detail

Roles of incident scenarios in foresight

Authors: Ferjenčík Miloš

Year: 2017

Type of publication: ostatní - článek ve sborníku

Name of source: Pre-proceedings of 53rd ESReDA Seminar : Enhancing Safety - the Challenge of Foresight

Publisher name: European Commission Joint Research Centre

Place: Ispra

Page from-to: 176-189

Titles:

Language	Name	Abstract	Keywords
eng	Roles of incident scenarios in foresight	The article is focused on visibility of early warning signs. It describes how the incident scenarios can be used as a supporting tool for foresight. Possible appearance of the incident scenarios represents a starting point. The use of scenarios for the identification of early warning signs and for the prioritization of early warning signs is shown. Uses of both predictive and retrospective scenarios are analysed and common features of both the types are identified. Ways of the use of scenarios are illustrated by examples. According to the article, visualisation of hazard realizations represents the common principal purpose of the use of scenarios. Relation of the visibility of hazard realizations to the visibility of early warning signs is discussed and demonstrated. Methods of hazard identification and risk analysis and methods of incident cause analysis are brought to mind in the article.	predictive analysis; retrospective analysis; causal factors; underlying causes

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